Paramount’s M&A Rumors That Will Change the Whole Entertainment and Streaming Landscape

I can’t ignore the rumors anymore. These deals may be the most intensive M&A debate since the Disney-Fox deal in 2019. To reiterate Shari Redstone that will soon be true, “This is not your father’s Viacom, and it’s not my father’s either.”

For refreshers, in 1999, Viacom announced that they would buy CBS, reuniting the two since they split in 1971 when the FCC prohibited networks from owning syndicated programming. The two were worth a combined $80 billion and was the biggest merger to date (until the AOL-TimeWarner merger). However, they would split again due to several reasons: leadership issues, loss in valuation, and the 2004 Super Bowl controversy. 13 years later, they officially announced a second merger, which closed in December 2019. They called it ViacomCBS.

Wall Street was skeptical about companies getting into the so-called “Streaming Wars” in 2019, which they still are. When ViacomCBS announced the launch/rebrand to Paramount+, they were immediately dubious. They looked at them and said they were “too small to compete.” Paramount+ reached over 60 million subscribers. But Wall Street analysts don’t care. They said they would “never reach a profit.” Paramount+ lost $230 million in Q4 2023, on track for profitability by 2025.

Even after all considerations, they look at Paramount, which currently has a capital of over $10 billion, down from $30 billion when it merged, and said it wouldn’t survive without being acquired or merged. They’re not completely wrong. Paramount is worth less than the undersized Fox Corporation (for now), which has $13 billion in capital. 

Now, Shari Redstone is finally putting up the signs.

Over the past week, there have been numerous reports and rumors of Paramount and National Amusements (the controlling stakeholders of Paramount) being up for sale. Many reports have stated they were talking to these companies: RedBird Capital and Skydance Media, Microsoft, and, just announced, Warner Bros. Discovery. 

RedBird Capital

Now, let’s be honest. I doubt anyone in the US knows RedBird Capital or what it invested in. RedBird Captial is a holding company that invests in sports. One of the assets they minorly own is not sports-related but rather an entertainment company. You might have heard of them. It’s Skydance Media. You know, the people responsible for helping Paramount film most of their movies since 2010.

There were talks about Skydance’s David Ellison and RedBird Capital getting Paramount. But they don’t want to buy them. Instead, they want to gain control of the company in the most intelligent possible way. They would instead gain control over the company by getting control of National Amusements, the Redstone family-owned business that controls 77% of Paramount. 

But there’s speculation that they would offload most of Paramount’s assets, including CBS, its TV stations, and its cable networks. Practically 2006 all over again with a big asterisk. Unless a said deal is done and long term, Paramount+ would be without CBS. And would Skydance be willing to continue to invest in Paramount+?

Microsoft

Okay, hear me out. Microsoft is in the mix due to the Halo show on Paramount+ and the many Xbox fan speculations. It’s also because Bobby Kotick, CEO of Activision Blizzard, had talks with Shari Redstone. But he is departing the company after Microsoft’s takeover of Activision Blizzard, and those talks had nothing to do with Microsoft. 

But Microsoft has been linked to a buyout of Paramount since they announced the Halo show. Many fans see it as an opportunity for Microsoft to develop games using Paramount’s IPs. The endless opportunities to make more shows with the Xbox IP on Paramount+. The question is, does Microsoft want to maintain the core company? They would have to invest in several aspects that they never went into, including broadcast, the cable networks, and filming. How many people want to see what happens on the latest Jersey Shore on their start screen on Windows or Xbox?

Warner Bros. Discovery

The Axe of Zas might be making his way down to Melrose. At least that’s what they want you to believe. David Zaslav, President and CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, Bob Bakish, and Sheri Redstone had talked of a proposed merger. However, real talks can’t happen until WBD’s tax provision expires in 2024. This possible merger is causing several outbursts online. Many see this as the death of many good things on the Paramount side.

On one side, it’s a good deal. A merged Paramount+/Max can easily take on Netflix when done right. A combined CBS Sports/WBD Sports can better compete against current-day ESPN. Paramount would like a boost in the international markets. Nickelodeon being reunited with Warner and under the same roof as Cartoon Network is a game-changer.

But in reality, this will be a disaster. When Warner Bros. Discovery first completed their merger, many saw it as an opportunity to move on from the dumpster fire that was the AT&T-TimeWarner deal. And they were quickly disappointed once Zaslav announced his money-saving strategy. Eliminating many positions at the company and getting rid of many movies and shows in production and already completed through tax write-offs, turning Zaslav into public enemy number 1 to both consumers and filmmakers. Why would he stop there once he has Paramount? 

By the way, the FTC wouldn’t allow a merger this big to happen unless they both sell assets. The Big-5 studios would become the Big-4 because Warner and Paramount are together. CBS News and CNN together? That’s a monopoly. Yeah, too much going on here. Think again, Wall Street.

Final Thoughts

This post took a while to write. Not only does Paramount’s sale shake up the whole industry, but it affects Paramount+. Which one of the companies listed, or soon to be listed, wants to continue building the service? Or will one shut it all down and send the library elsewhere? We know it won’t under Zaslav.

Let’s not just stop there, who’s next? I know NBCUniversal isn’t safe. CNBC is trying to cover them up but Brian Roberts might be ready to spin it off. And how long will Lionsgate last as an independent studio?

Whoever’s the taker, Paramount will never be the same as it once was 23 years ago with the original merger and just 4 years ago with the current. Sorry, Mr. Redstone.